12:07 a.m. UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas west of Springfield until 5:00 a.m. Wednesday. Counties included in the watch are Barton, Cedar, Dade, Hickory, Jasper, Newton, Polk, St. Clair and Vernon.
8:50 p.m. UPDATE: The National Weather Service says the cap that is preventing storms from breaking out is holding strong. Nevertheless, there remains a conditional threat for severe storms (if the cap can break) ahead of an expected squall line of storms late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. If storms can manage to develop ahead of the squall line, which has developed across eastern Kansas, they would likely be severe. The squall line will get into the northern portions of the I-49 corridor (near Nevada) between midnight and 2 a.m. Wednesday. Joplin would be more in the 2 a.m.-4 a.m. time frame. It should then reach the I-44 corridor around Lebanon and Springfield in the 3 a.m.-5 a.m. time frame.
Original Story: Strong nighttime tornadoes are a risk for a large part of the Ozarks Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, including the Springfield metro area.
The National Weather Service says confidence is increasing that areas along and east of a line from Springfield to Branson may have at least a few strong tornadoes of EF-2 strength or above.
This area is in a “moderate,” or level 4 risk for severe weather, which also includes the potential for up to tennis ball size hail during the evening into the overnight hours.
Forecasters say there is some degree of uncertainty on a cap of warm air aloft that could limit thunderstorm updraft development.
The entire area has the potential for damaging winds up to 70 miles per hour, especially as a line of storms moves through southwest Missouri during the overnight hours.
The National Weather Service timeline for severe storms shows the greatest threat after 10 p.m. Tuesday night, continuing past 4 a.m. on Wednesday.
In addition, gusty winds are possible through Tuesday night outside of any thunderstorms, with a Wind Advisory in effect at 2:00 p.m. and going through 1:00 a.m. Wednesday.
Wind gusts of 35 to 50 miles per hour are expected, with the highest gusts west of Highway 65.
We’ll have the latest forecast changes and severe weather watches and warnings at 93-3 A-M 560 KWTO.